J. Nelson – Writer

“For purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity.” – Donald Trump, in an announcement naming his ambassador to Denmark.

“Don Jr. and my Reps landing in Greenland. The reception has been great. They, and the Free World, need safety, security, strength, and PEACE! This is a deal that must happen. MAGA. MAKE GREENLAND GREAT AGAIN!” – Donald Trump, Truth Social.

“It was given to Panama and the people of Panama, but it has provisions …. If the principles, both moral and legal, of this magnanimous gesture of giving are not followed, then we will demand that the Panama Canal be returned to the United States of America, in full, quickly and without question.” – Donald Trump, during a speech at AmericaFest.

“Many people in Canada LOVE being the 51st State.” – Donald Trump, Truth Social. 

Welcome to the next four years under Donald Trump.

Of course, this is nothing new. Trump has a habit of saying outlandish things. It’s how, from 2015 to 2021, he managed to create a new scandal or crisis every day, if not every hour, that got continuous news coverage.

From 10 years now of dealing with Trump in politics, we know this will go one of two ways — depending on the direction of the wind, the alignment of the stars, and how many whales are being tormented by windmills at that exact moment:

1. Trump says/tweets/Truths absurd thing. Media reports Trump said absurd thing. Trump supporters insist that Trump did not mean the absurd thing and media is trying to make him look bad. Trump doubles down on absurd thing while Trump-supporting media try to spin it as The Best Thing Ever™ and those riding his coattails scramble to protect themselves from the ramifications of absurd thing.
   
2. Or: Trump says/tweets/Truths absurd thing. Media reports Trump said absurd thing. Trump insists he never said absurd thing. (Trump-supporting media ignore the absurd thing and concoct a flattering lie to talk about instead.) Media shows tweet/Truth post or video clip that proves Trump said the absurd thing. Trump calls it fake news and declares media the enemy of the people. Trump supporters follow suit.

We know this is how it goes. So the question is: How much stock do we put in the absurd things Trump says?

Here’s the other thing we know about Trump from dealing with him for the last decade: He means what he says in the moment he says it. The man has zero filter and a tendency to say aloud (or publicly post) whatever is on his mind in that instant.

But we also know he tends to parrot the last thing he heard from the last person he spoke to or talk show he watched, as well as to say whatever he thinks his most avid supporters want to hear. That means his position on any given issue can change at the drop of a hat — á la abortion or H-1B visas.

Keep in mind many of the guardrails that kept Trump from fulfilling some of his more controversial fantasies have been weakened or destroyed or are under attack. A Republican-dominated Congress is unlikely to stand in his way, and the Supreme Court has already gifted Trump near-immunity for anything he does while in office, no matter how illegal or unethical. So we can’t assume that because he didn’t or couldn’t do something last time means he can’t or won’t this time.

Since Trump says so many crazy things on a daily basis and changes his mind more often than most people change their socks, I recommend two rules of thumb for when to take what he’s saying seriously:

1. He has said it more than once over a period of at least several weeks. (This does not include ongoing news or commentary coverage of a single quote.) This is the rule of thumb I’m using to gauge his seriousness about trying to buy (or otherwise take over) control of Greenland; he first brought it up at the end of his first term as president, and he’s resurrected it before he even enters office. If he’s managed to keep this idea in his head for four years, no matter how hairbrained or theoretically impossible it is, we need to treat his statements about acquiring Greenland as if they are a real policy position. The jury is still out on whether he is seriously considering the use of military force to take over Greenland and the Panama Canal and whether he’s serious about “annexing” Canada.
   
2. His supporters in positions of power — whether that be in government, finance, tech, etc. — are mobilizing (often under the radar) to make it happen. This is the better method to use when Trump pulls his “I never said that” stunt. While Trump and his supporters are backpedaling publicly, what are his allies and followers doing on the ground? So when Trump says he thinks abortion rights should be decided by the states, is his administration now hands-off, or is his inner circle working on a national abortion ban to present to Congress? When Trump disavows Project 2025, is his team backing away from those principles or it is quietly implementing its core tenets?

Unfortunately, both of those methods require us to be paying attention beyond the sound bite of the day, which can be difficult to do. Trump’s superpower is he can create so much chaos on a daily basis that it overwhelms our information ecosystem — and our brains’ capacity to keep up with it all. That, in turn, makes it much more tempting to turn off the news altogether and tune out politics even more.

So instead of feeding into the outrage machine — which Trump thoroughly enjoys — by reacting to everything absurd thing Trump says, take a step back and look for the patterns: Does he bring it up more than once, usually in the same or similar way (like Greenland)? Are there movements in government or private markets that give credence to the absurd thing?

If the answer to both is no, let go of that outrageous thing and refocus on the next. Repeat until the answer to one or both questions is yes — then you know where to put your energy and prepare to resist.